๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐น๐๐๐๐ Bold & Frank
Related Articles
By Garret M. Graff
1. The Russian Governmentโs Election Attack:ย The special counsel moved aggressively to outline and charge the Russian governmentโs core attack on the 2016 election, which included bothย active cyber intrusions and data theftย by the military intelligence unit GRU and the GRUโs attempted attacks on the US voting system, as well asย online information influence operations by the Internet Research Agency, known by the moniker โProject Lakhta.โ Numerous threads from this investigation remain unseenโincluding aย possible cooperator inside the Internet Research Agency, Putinโs own involvement, whether any Americans contributed knowingly to the attack, the role of theย FSBโs โCozy Bearโ hackers, and whether or how Russiaโs expensive and multipronged attack coordinated with contacts between Russian nationals and the Trump campaign over the course of 2016, including the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting. Mueller has also reportedly beenย investigatingย the role of late GOP activist Peter Smith, who had apparently tried to locate stolen emails and make contact with Russian hackers. Itโs also unclear what has sparked Muellerโs apparentย continuedย interestย in Trumpโs campaign tech firm, Cambridge Analytica.
Status: 12 Russian military intelligence officers from the GRUย indicted, 13 peopleย indictedย from the Internet Research Agency, alongside three Russian companies, and a guilty plea from one California man whoย unwittingly aided their identity theft. Manafort aide Sam Patten is cooperating with investigators.
Read also:
2. WikiLeaks:ย Whether WikiLeaksโ publishing of the emails stolen by Russian hackers connects from Moscow to Trump Tower itself remains an open question. But a leakedย aborted plea agreementย from conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi makes clear that Trump associates had at least some advance knowledge of what WikiLeaks was planning to publish. How any of that may connect withย looming charges facing WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange and another apparentlyย abandoned dealย for him to leave the Ecuador embassy in London is also unclear.
Status: Both Trump aide Roger Stone and Corsi have said they expect to be indicted. Unclear if looming charges against Assange relate to Mueller investigation.
3. Middle Eastern Influence: Potentially the biggest unseen aspect of Muellerโs investigation is his year-long pursuit of Middle Eastern influence targeting the Trump campaign, which the Daily Beast reported last week might become public sometime early next year. As the Daily Beast wrote, โThe โRussia investigationโ is set to go global.โ The investigation appears to centre on the role of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which were eager to help the campaign and, in some cases, have business ties to Trump or presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner. Kushner specifically appears to have been a key focus of these foreign efforts:ย The New Yorkerย and other news outlets have carefully traced howย China,ย Qatar, andย Saudi Arabia targeted the White House, senior adviser.
Status: No public court activity yet, but two key figures are known to be cooperating: the Middle East would-be power broker George Naderย and Blackwater mercenary group founderย Erik Prince.
4. Paul Manafortโs Activity:ย What began over a year ago with aย sweeping money laundering indictmentย targeting Trumpโs one-time campaign chairโand resulted inย his conviction on eight felonies at trialย before he accepted a plea agreement on other chargesโcontinues to unfold. In court documents, Mueller has made clear that heโsย investigatingย Manafort associate Konstantin Kilimnik, a Ukrainian tied to Russian intelligence. He may also have interest in Kilimnikโs interactions with anotherย Trump associate, real estate investor Tom Barrack, who has also beenย interviewed by investigators.
Status: Manafortโs been both convicted at trial and accepted a plea agreement; lawyer Alex van der Zwaan pleaded guilty to lying to investigators about the Ukrainian work; Manafort associate Sam Patten has pleaded guilty to failing to register as a foreign agent; Kilimnik has been indicted for obstruction of justice. Known cooperators includeย Trump deputy campaign chair and Manafort business partner Rick Gates, who has also pleaded guilty to his own role in the money laundering scheme.
5. The Trump Tower Moscow Project: Just days before Cohen was sentenced to three years in federal prison for the eight felonies he pleaded guilty to in August, Mueller surprised everyone with a ninth charge. Cohen admitted that he lied to Congress about the status of the Trump Organizationโs pursuit of a Trump Tower Moscow, a proposed project that extended longer into the campaign and proceeded into more serious conversations than previously admitted. The special counsel also noted how the project would be worth โhundreds of millionsโ of dollars, far more than a normal Trump licensing deal, leading to questions about why it would have been so lucrative. The case also connects the Trump Organizationโs business deals, and the campaign, directly to the office of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose government was at the time busily engaged in the attack on the US election. Moreover, according to statements by congressional investigators and documents released from Congressโs own Russia investigation, other figures, includingย Donald Trump Jr., may face legal exposure about their own testimony on the Trump Tower Moscow project.
Status: Cohen has pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about the status of the project and is cooperating with investigators.
6. Other Campaign and Transition Contacts With Russia:ย As journalists haveย piecedย together, at least 14 Trump associates had contact with Russia during the campaign and transition, from foreign policy aide Carter Page to would-be attorney general Jeff Sessions. Questions continue to surround many of those contacts, not least of all the Trump Tower meeting in June 2016 that included Trump Jr., Kushner, and Manafort, and which involved hints that the meeting was only โpart of Russia and its governmentโs support for Mr Trump,โ as the emailย setting up the meeting first promised.
Status: Both national security adviser Michael Flynn and foreign policy aide George Papadopoulos have pleaded guilty to charges related to their campaign and transition contacts with Russia. Cohen and Flynn have both provided extensive cooperation to Mueller about the campaign and transition contacts.
7. Obstruction of Justice:ย Robert Muellerโs appointment stemmed from Trumpโs decision to fire FBI director James Comey and fears that the firing was an attempt to obstruct the initial stages of the Russia investigation. But recent court documents hint that Mueller might be assembling aย broader obstruction-of-justiceย case against Trump, one that could potentially argue that the presidentโs public statements intentionally misled the public in an attempt to limit the scope of the Russia investigation. Even if Mueller decides thereโs enough evidence to bring a case here, it seems more likely to get passed along to Congress for consideration of impeachment rather than prosecuted in court.
Status: No public movement yet, but court documents point to the fact that at least Manafort and Cohen have provided evidence useful to this case about their own contacts in 2017 and 2018 with the White House.
Investigations by the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York
8. Campaign Conspiracy and the Trump Organizationโs Finances: Despite the myriad cases unfolding from the special counsel, the White Houseโs most immediate legal jeopardy increasingly appears to stem from federal prosecutors in New York digging into Trumpโs alleged financial shenanigans. Perhaps the biggest political bombshell amid the last three weeks has been the new revelations around Michael Cohen, โIndividual 1โ (as court documents have identified Trump), and the hush-money payments to cover up extramarital affairs in the final weeks of the 2016 election. Prosecutors have written that Donald Trump himself directed the paymentsโan indication that they have solid documentary evidence that hasnโt become public yetโand have apparently lined up nearly every other participant in the scheme as a cooperator.
Status: Cohen has already pleaded guilty, andย National Enquirerโs David Pecker, its parent company AMI, Cohen, and Trump Organization CFOย Allen Weisselbergare all cooperating with investigators.
9. Inauguration Funding:ย Late last week,ย The Wall Street Journalย broke wordย that prosecutors were digging into the record $107 million raised and spent by the Trump inauguration committee, potentially with concerns about where that money came from and where it went, based in part on documents and evidence seized during the Michael Cohen investigation. Journalists have longย raised questionsย about where the inauguration money went, and the FBI expressedย concernย about the Russian elites whoย appearedย at the event. We already know that at least some shady money was involved: Manafort associate Sam Pattenโs plea agreement includes that he helped a Ukrainian businessman funnel $50,000 to the inauguration.
Status: No public court activity yet beyond Patten, but he is cooperating with investigators.
10. Trump SuperPAC Funding: Related to the news about the inauguration inquiries was the word that prosecutors are digging into the fundingย of a Trump SuperPAC, Rebuilding America Now, where Paul Manafort also played a role.
Status: No public court activity yet, but Manafort aide Sam Patten is cooperating with investigators.
11. Foreign Lobbying:ย Robert Mueller also handed off information he uncovered during the Manafort money laundering probe to prosecutors in New York. According toย news reports, he referred questions about at least a trio of other lobbyistsโTony Podesta, Vin Weber, and Greg Craigโand whether they allegedly failed to appropriately register as foreign agents for work related to Ukraine. Podesta abruptly closed his eponymous lobbying firm last year, and Mueller had previously been interested in the work done by Mercury LLC, Weberโs firm, as well as the law firm Skadden Arps, where Craig worked until earlier this year. Skadden Arps also employed the Dutch lawyer Alex van der Zwaan, whoย pleaded guiltyย to lying to investigators about his contacts with Rick Gates.
Status: Rick Gates is cooperating with investigators.
Investigations by the US Attorney for the District of Columbia
12. Maria Butina and the NRA: The guilty plea last week by a Russian agent and gun-rights enthusiast Butina came with an extensive cooperation agreement, including the possibility of her meeting with investigators without lawyers present. While the most immediate next target of the investigation appears to be Butinaโs boyfriend, Republican operative Paul Ericksonโhe was sent aย so-called โtargetโ letter by prosecutors recentlyโquestions have also swirledย about 2016 campaign funding by the National Rifle Association and the reach of Russia into the US conservative movement. Notably, Butina attended numerous conservative eventsโincluding the inaugurationโand broughtย 11 Russiansย to the annual prayer breakfast, wasย photographedย with numerous conservative leaders, and even asked candidate Trump a question at an event early in the campaign, giving him an opportunity to praise Russia.
Status: Maria Butina has pleaded guilty and is cooperating.
Investigations by the US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia
13. Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova: The alleged chief accountant of the Internet Research Agency was indicted separately earlier this fall by prosecutors in northern Virginia and the Justice Departmentโs unit that handles counterintelligence and espionage cases, not by Muellerโs special counsel office. Khusyaynova was charged with the activity that went above and beyond the 2016 campaign, including efforts to meddle in this yearโs midterms. Why she was prosecuted separatelyย remains a puzzle.
Status: Khusyaynova has been indicted.
14. Turkish Influence:ย According toย court documents, Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn contributed to two investigations beyond the Russia probe. While both were redacted in his court case, there are strong hints,ย including reporting byย The New York Times, that one of those two cases includes a grand jury in northern Virginia focused on illegal influence by the Turkish government. According to theย Times, โProsecutors are examining Mr Flynnโs former business partners and clients who financed a campaign against Fethullah Gulen, a cleric living in Pennsylvania whom the Turkish government has accused of helping instigate a failed coup.โ Flynnโs own sentencing documents allude to the fact that Flynn handed over voluminous records from his own businesses.
Status: Michael Flynnโs plea agreement includes some details of the case. Flynn is cooperating with investigators.
Investigations by New York City, New York State, & Other State Attorneys General
15. Tax Case:ย In the wake of aย New York Timesย investigation that found Donald Trump had apparently benefited from upwards of $400 million in tax schemes, city officials saidย they were investigating trump’s tax payments, as did theย New York State Tax Department. Longtime lawyer and Trump fixer Cohen also reported in his own court filing that he met with investigators from the New York Attorney Generalโs Office, although the court filings didnโt explain what the investigation entailed.
Status: Unknown.
16. The Trump Foundation:ย The New York Attorney Generalย suedย the Trump Foundation this summer, charging it with, asย The New York Timesย summarized, โsweeping violations of campaign finance laws, self-dealing and illegal coordination with the presidential campaign.โ A judge justย ruledย last month that the lawsuit can proceed. Now the incoming attorney general has promised even moreย wide-ranging inquiriesย in the Trump business world.
Status: Case is proceeding, having cleared initial court tests.
17. Emoluments Lawsuit:ย The attorneys general for Maryland and DC sent out subpoenas earlier this month for Trump Organization and hotel financial records relating to theirย lawsuit alleging that the president is in breach of the so-called Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, which appears to prohibit the president from accepting payments from foreign powers while in office. The lawsuitโs discovery phase could push voluminous amounts of information into public view about how foreign governments have funnelled business to Trumpโs organization, like how the Saudi government evidentlyย purchased more than 500 roomsย at Trumpโs hotel in DC in the months after the election
Courtesy of wired.com
