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Battleground States That Will Decide the Race


Although some are still too close to call, they’re tilting in Biden’s direction for now.


Wisconsin update– Joe Biden was declared the winner Wednesday afternoon, with a lead of more than 20,000 votes, not far from President Trump’s winning margin (0.7 of a point) here in 2016. The Trump campaign says it will ask for a recount, but that would be a large deficit to make up. Joseph R. Biden Jr. flipped Wisconsin back to the Democrats’ corner in a race that took until Wednesday afternoon to decide. In 2016, Donald J. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since 1984, narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton by roughly 23,000.

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Nevada: Mr Biden has only a narrow lead, but here again it’s hard to see where Mr. Trump is supposed to make up ground. All of the Election Day vote has been counted, and now only Democratic-leaning late mail and provisional ballots remain. Nevada election officials said no more results would be released until noon Eastern on Thursday. Las Vegas— With the presidential race still too close to call on Wednesday evening, more and more eyes turned toward Nevada and its six electoral votes. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden leads President Trump in the state, but by less than one percentage point. The state still has what Nevada state election officials characterized as “tens of thousands” of mail-in and provisional ballots left to count, and has said it will not release any new results until Thursday morning.

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Tensions, though, are high. A news media briefing by the Clark County registrar Joe Gloria Wednesday afternoon was briefly interrupted by a man who jumped in front of cameras and repeatedly yelled: “The Biden crime family is stealing this election! The media is covering it up!”

Arizona: The president is at a much larger five-point deficit in Arizona, so you might be surprised to learn that it’s still up for grabs. But there’s uncertainty about the remaining vote. One thing we know: There are late mail ballots, received by the state over the last few days. These ballots usually tilt Democratic, but this year they might not. So many Democrats rushed their ballots in early that most of the remaining absentee ballots are from registered Republicans. It’s possible these Republicans just went out and voted on Election Day. But it’s also possible they’ve sent in their ballots, which haven’t been counted yet. We’ll get a better idea later Wednesday, when officials have said they expect to have finished counting ballots. Phoenix — Just a decade ago, Maricopa County embodied Arizona’s status as a Republican bastion. Politicians like Joe Arpaio, the tough-talking sheriff who was long a fixture in the county that includes the Phoenix suburbs, thrived in large part because of their ability to appeal to voters while taking a hard line on immigration, guns, religion and taxes.

But with Arizona emerging as a tempting target for Democrats, Maricopa’s election results are shattering that perception in what may amount to one of the biggest political shifts of any major county in the United States in recent years.

Michigan update: Mr. Trump had the lead here all night, but Mr. Biden overtook him on Wednesday as votes came in from heavily Democratic Wayne County and as poll workers processed mail absentee ballots, which have tended to be heavily Democratic. Joseph R. Biden Jr. narrowly won Michigan, and if he goes on to capture Arizona and Nevada, where the results were unclear, he could take the presidency — even without winning pivotal Pennsylvania.

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President Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 10,704 votes, his smallest margin of victory in the nation. Michigan Democrats worked hard to ensure that city dwellers, especially in Detroit, where turnout was depressed in 2016, came out to vote.

Mr Biden was declared the winner late Wednesday afternoon; the Trump campaign said it was suing to stop the count. With Michigan, Mr Biden gets much closer to the 270-electoral-vote threshold.

Pennsylvania– Looks can be deceiving- This one might seem out of reach for Mr Biden, with the president holding an 11-point lead. But Mr Trump is in quite a bit of danger here as well. The preponderance of the remaining vote is mail absentee, and Mr Biden has won mail absentee votes in Pennsylvania by a margin of 78 percent to 21 percent. There are more than 1.4 million absentee votes left to count, according to the secretary of state, and that’s not including ballots that might arrive over the next few days. If Mr Biden wins these 1.4 million votes by the same margin he’s been winning them so far — and it seems a safe bet — it will net him around 800,000 votes, enough for him to pull ahead. That said, it’s hard to be too confident with this many ballots left to count. State officials expect the overwhelming majority of votes will be counted by Friday. PittsburghPennsylvania, the state with the largest trove of electoral votes still up for grabs, inched ahead in its counting of more than one million outstanding mail-in ballots on Wednesday, a majority of them from Democratic strongholds, as Joseph R. Biden cut into his deficit with President Trump.

With narrow wins in Wisconsin and Michigan called on Wednesday afternoon, Mr Biden has flipped two of the three northern industrial states that handed Mr. Trump the White House in 2016. The third, Pennsylvania, loomed as a battleground that Mr Trump must win again to secure re-election; if Mr Biden won the state, it would put him over the top.

Officials from each party vigorously made their cases that the composition of the uncounted mail-in votes ensured that a Pennsylvania victory was at hand for their candidate, though state officials warned that the counting would continue for days.

Georgia– This might surprise people. Mr Trump has a two-point lead with more than 90 percent of votes counted, but there’s a lot of Democratic vote left in the Atlanta area. It might be just enough for Mr Biden. This one’s sure to be very close either way. The secretary of state has said he expects the winners of most races in the state to be announced by Wednesday.

If Mr Biden did carry Georgia, along with the other states mentioned so far, he’d win more than 300 electoral votes. The margin between President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. continues to narrow in Georgia. As of 10:30 p.m., Mr Trump leads the state — where he has already sued to challenge the handling of a small number of ballots — by only 33,300 votes.

Counting is continuing in the Atlanta metro region, traditionally a Democratic stronghold. We are expecting more updates around midnight, when officials in Fulton County, home to Atlanta, had estimated they would complete their vote tally.

North Carolina: This is the one state where Mr Trump is the favourite. The race isn’t particularly close, but there’s a big missing piece of the puzzle: late mail ballots. The state accepts mail ballots received after the election until Nov. 12, and there were around half a million absentee ballots still outstanding heading into Election Day. Realistically, only a fraction of these ballots will be mailed in. In 2016, there were only 10,000 or so — though there were far fewer absentee ballots cast that year. This year, there wasn’t a huge flood of mail ballots received on Monday — which probably suggests there won’t be a huge flood of ballots today. Nonetheless, we don’t know any of this for sure. I’d guess the race won’t be called until we do.

About Whispers from the North

Whispers from the North is an online platform that appreciates the ecological, cultural and socio-economic diversities of Northern Kenya. We also acknowledge that the lives of the communities of northern Kenya has been shaped by a number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors which have led to complex challenge that calls for a multifaceted approach.

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