CENSUS PROJECTIONS: Software Projects Kenya Population will be 49.6 Million After 2019 Census Results are released. Also Population Projection of Kenya’s 43 Ethnic Groups Revealed.


Compiled by Stan Oyunga
[stanoyunga@gmail.com]


The Kenya Election Database software, Kenya’s only digital source of National election results (1969-2017) has projected that Kenya will have 49,652,585 Million people as at August, 2019.


This is only a PROJECTION and the official results is expected after three months from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Other projections are 52.7 Million from United Nations (www.worldometres.info) and 49,3 Million from International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The population was 38,610,097 in the August, 2009 census and 49,652,585 in August, 2019 projection hence increase of 11,042,488 (22.24%)


KENYA CITIZEN ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION PROJECTION AS AT AUGUST, 2019


This projection is based on 43 ethnic group enumerated in August, 2009 census, hence does not include sub-ethnic group who are considered part of main ethnic groups, e.g. Kipsigis (Kalenjin), Bukusu (Luhya), Giriama (Mijikenda). The KNBS may have added new ethnic groups in 2019 census who were not included in 2009 e.g. Makonde. Non-citizens are not included.

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KIKUYU 8,516,633

LUHYA 6,865,524

KALENJIN 6,387,984

LUO 5,201,150

KAMBA 5,006,600

KENYAN SOMALI 3,067,846

KISII 2,836,490

MIJIKENDA 2,521,298

MERU 2,132,327

TURKANA 1,271,329

MAASAI 1,082,326

TESO 435,739

EMBU 416,782

TAITA 351,745

KURIA 334,876

SAMBURU 305,012

THARAKA 226,214

MBEERE 216,247

BORAN 207,559

BASUBA 179,103

SWAHILI 142,250

GABBRA 115,116

ORMA 85,230

RENDILE 77,722

KENYAN ASIAN 60,162

KENYAN ARAB 52,417

ILCHAMUS 35,092

SAKUYE 34,444

BURJI 30,523

GOSHA 28,117

TAVETA 26,785

WALWANA 21,609

NUBI 19,885

DASENACH 16,114

GALLA 10,476

GALJEEL 9,713

WAAT 8,873

LEYSAN 7,640

NJEMPS 6,723

KENYAN EUROPEAN 6,643

ISAAK 4,064

KENYAN AMERICAN 3,115

KONSO 2,261

TOTAL 48,367,759


KENYA COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTION AS AT AUGUST 2019


01 MOMBASA COAST 1,208,030

02 KWALE COAST 835,811

03 KILIFI COAST 1,427,119

04 TANA RIVER COAST 308,736

05 LAMU COAST 130,579

06 TAITA-TAVETA COAST 366,069

07 GARISSA NORTH EASTERN 801,255

08 WAJIR NORTH EASTERN 851,256

09 MANDERA NORTH EASTERN 1,319,122

10 MARSABIT EASTERN 374,439

11 ISIOLO EASTERN 184,276

12 MERU EASTERN 1,744,203

13 THARAKA-NITHI EASTERN 469,814

14 EMBU EASTERN 663,849

15 KITUI EASTERN 1,302,344

16 MACHAKOS EASTERN 1,412,779

17 MAKUENI EASTERN 1,137,502

18 NYANDARUA CENTRAL 766,801

19 NYERI CENTRAL 891,916

20 KIRINYAGA CENTRAL 679,077

21 MURANGA CENTRAL 1,212,159

22 KIAMBU CENTRAL 2,087,541

23 TURKANA RIFT VALLEY 1,100,043

24 WEST POKOT RIFT VALLEY 659,319

25 SAMBURU RIFT VALLEY 287,996

26 TRANS NZOIA RIFT VALLEY 1,052,922

27 UASIN GISHU RIFT VALLEY 1,149,914

28 ELGEYO MARAKWET RIFT VALLEY 475,817

29 NANDI RIFT VALLEY 968,313

30 BARINGO RIFT VALLEY 714,451

31 LAIKIPIA RIFT VALLEY 513,406

32 NAKURU RIFT VALLEY 2,061,876

33 NAROK RIFT VALLEY 1,094,283

34 KAJIADO RIFT VALLEY 883,883

35 KERICHO RIFT VALLEY 975,224

36 BOMET RIFT VALLEY 931,303

37 KAKAMEGA WESTERN 2,135,597

38 VIHIGA WESTERN 713,244

39 BUNGOMA WESTERN 1,768,331

40 BUSIA WESTERN 956,715

41 SIAYA NYANZA 1,083,203

42 KISUMU NYANZA 1,246,017

43 HOMA BAY NYANZA 1,239,439

44 MIGORI NYANZA 1,179,481

45 KISII NYANZA 1,481,835

46 NYAMIRA NYANZA 769,352

47 NAIROBI NAIROBI 4,035,943

TOTAL 49,652,585

Also read:  Law gives Cabinet powers to cancel, alter census data


(C) 2019 Stan Oyunga -31/8/2019


(Source: Kenya Election Database version 3.0)[Data based on 2009 Kenya Population & Housing Census from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (@ www.knbs.or.ke) -Average annual population growth rate of 2.6% applied using Kenya Election Database software.]


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